In early 2020, the sudden onset of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the normal operation of China's economy and society has a significant impact, but also on the development of machinery industry to bring unprecedented impact. Since March, in the party central committee, the state council to promote the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development work under the deployment of government departments promptly introduced tax reduction, help enterprises to help enterprises, stable employment and other policy measures, machinery industry enterprises actively fight the epidemic, speed up the resumption of work and production. Especially after entering the second quarter, the production and operation order basically returned to normal, the industry economic operation indicators are obviously stabilized.
Outlook for the second half of the year, with the gradual release of macroeconomic policy effects, machinery industry demand market will continue to recover, the operating environment continues to improve. But due to the overseas epidemic there is still greater instability and uncertainty, the international economic and trade situation is increasingly severe and complex, machinery industry is still facing greater downward pressure.
First, the first half of the machinery industry operating profile
Affected by the epidemic, the beginning of the mechanical industrial production operation suffered a huge impact, 1-2 months the main economic indicators fell, began to stabilize in March, into the second quarter after the stabilization of the trend of better clearer.
(A) value added decline significantly narrowed
The National Bureau of Statistics data show that in the first half of the machinery industry value added fell 1.5% year-on-year, significantly narrower than the first quarter of 17.5 percentage points, 0.2, 0.1 percentage points lower than the same period of the national industry and manufacturing sector. June month value added of the machinery industry grew 9% year-on-year, higher than the same period of the national industry and manufacturing sector 4.2 and 3.9 percentage points.
The first half of the machinery industry is mainly involved in the five national economy industry categories, special equipment manufacturing value added has achieved positive growth, up 2.9%; general equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing and instrumentation manufacturing value added fell by 2.3%, 3.1%, 0.3% and 0.7% year-on-year, down 14.9, 22.9, 12.6 and 15.4 percentage points narrower than in the first quarter. 12.6 and 15.4 percentage points from the first quarter.
(II) Gradual recovery of production of major products
At the beginning of the year by the epidemic caused by the impact of the postponement of resumption of work, the mechanical industry focus on monitoring the production of 120 kinds of major products fell sharply, 1-2 months only 2 kinds of product production growth. Since then, with the continued advancement of the resumption of work and production, the production of enterprises gradually recovered, and the number of key monitored products to achieve output growth in the increasing number of products. In the first half of the year, there are 36 kinds of products production growth, accounting for 30%; production decline in products still have 84 kinds, accounting for 70%. From the data of the month, 4, 5, 6 consecutive three months of monthly output growth of more than 75 kinds of products.
The overall market situation for the main products of the machinery industry was as follows: the market for investment products recovered a little faster than expected! The recovery of the consumer products market was slower than expected. Specifically: first, thanks to infrastructure investment and energy construction related to the recovery and start of the project, construction machinery, power generation equipment production and sales of faster growth. Excavators, loaders, compaction machinery and concrete machinery in the first half of the construction machinery products such as overall growth in output, excavators and concrete machinery production increased by more than 20%; Association statistics for May, June excavator sales growth of more than 60%. Power generation equipment production in the first half of the year increased by 16.71%, including hydroelectric generator sets and wind turbine production increased by 136.86% and 78.82% respectively, and gas turbines increased by 41.09%. Second, the production of some agricultural products faster recovery, the first half of the large tractor production increased by 33.51%, medium tractor production increased by 4.54%, cotton processing machinery increased by 34.78%. Third, with the new infrastructure, people's livelihood infrastructure construction and intelligent manufacturing-related products production rebounded in the first half of the optical cable production growth of 6.25%, solid waste disposal equipment production growth of 61.25%, industrial robotics growth of 10.31%, industrial automatic regulation instrumentation and control system growth of 0.64%. Fourth, automobile production and sales continue to stabilize, the association statistics in the first half of automobile production and sales were completed 10.112 million units and 10.257 million units, down 16.8% and 16.9% year-on-year, the decline is significantly narrower than the beginning of the year. Fifth, passenger cars rebounded slowly, consumer products representative of passenger cars in the first half of the production and sales fell by 22.5% and 22.4% year-on-year, affected by the slow recovery of the consumer market, passenger car production and sales growth compared with the previous few months, although significantly narrowed, but still did not reach the ideal state.
(iii) The main economic indicators stabilized significantly
Mechanical industry in the first half of the cumulative operating income of 9.55 trillion yuan, down 4.94%, a continuation of the stabilization trend since March, down 19.17 percentage points narrower than the first quarter; cumulative total profits of 552.52 billion yuan, down 7.09%, also a continuation of the stabilization trend since March, down 49.49 percentage points narrower than the first quarter; business The revenue margin was 5.79 percent. Compared with the national industry, the first half of the machinery industry operating income and total profit decline than the national industry narrowed 0.23 and 5.76 percentage points, operating income margin of 0.35 percentage points higher.
(iv) The main sub-industry recovery is still unbalanced
The first half of the mechanical industry non-automotive industry operating income fell 2.98% year-on-year, the decline is less than the overall level of the machinery industry, and narrower than the first quarter of 16.91 percentage points; Among them, agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, construction machinery, robotics and intelligent manufacturing 4 sub-industry operating income year-on-year growth. Non-automotive industry total profit year-on-year by the quarter down 39.98% for the first half of the year growth of 2.11%, 9.2 percentage points higher than the overall level of the machinery industry; Among them, agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, construction machinery, instruments and meters, heavy mining, machine tools, machinery basic parts, food packaging, robotics and intelligent manufacturing 9 sub-industry total profit growth.
Automobile industry operating income in the first half of the year fell 8.1% year-on-year, total profits fell 20.23%, two indicators of the decline in the beginning of the year, although significantly narrower, but still lower than the overall level of the machinery industry.
(V) Foreign trade declined year-on-year
Customs data show that in the first half of the year, the machinery industry accumulated a total import and export volume of 344.2 billion U.S. dollars, down 7.84% year-on-year. Among them, imports were $138.6 billion, down 8.54 percent year-on-year; exports were $205.6 billion, down 7.37 percent year-on-year. Compared with the first quarter, the total import and export declined by 1.99 percentage points, import declined by 1.58 percentage points, and export declined by 4.44 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry accumulated a trade surplus of 67 billion U.S. dollars.
(VI) Prosperity index of the machinery industry rebounded
The formulation of the machinery industry boom index covers production, investment, foreign trade, economic efficiency and other dimensions, and comprehensively reflects the operation of the machinery industry. In the first half of the first half of the machinery industry boom index overall showed a rising trend, bottomed out at the beginning of the year after the rapid rebound, in June has risen back to 92.8, 14.97 points higher than the end of March. Reflected the machinery industry operating boom degree continued to stabilize to good.
Second, in front of the epidemic highlights the toughness of industry development
The new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the machinery industry economic operation has brought unprecedented impact and challenges, the majority of enterprises to take the initiative, positive response, contrarian, showing the industry development resilience.
(A) the epidemic prevention and control initiative, back to work to resume production fast forward
Faced with the sudden onset of the epidemic, the vast number of enterprises in the machinery industry actively engaged in the fight against the epidemic. On the one hand, they stepped up the manufacture and research and development of negative pressure ambulances, masks and mask machines, ventilation and disinfection systems and other special products needed for the prevention and control of the epidemic, so as to meet the demand and ensure supply in a relatively short period of time. On the other hand, fast and efficient organization and promotion of enterprises back to work and production, China Machinery Industry Federation together with 18 sub-industry associations established more than 8,000 enterprises back to work and production daily data show that the machinery industry enterprises back to work in mid-February less than 30% to mid-March to nearly 90%, early April has more than 95%, effectively implementing the central government on the co-ordination of epidemic prevention and control and resumption of production requirements for the second quarter The recovery of industry operation has laid the foundation.
(ii) Industry recovery driven by strategic new industries
The first half of the machinery industry in the strategic emerging industries related to the industry to achieve operating income of 7.11 trillion yuan, down 3.85% year-on-year, down 1.09 percentage points narrower than the overall mechanical industry, the proportion of the mechanical industry operating income of 74.4%, 0.85 percentage points higher than the same period last year; total profits of 406.668 billion yuan, down 4.63% year-on-year. The decline is narrower than the overall machinery industry by 2.46 percentage points. The rebound of strategic emerging industries has played a positive role in stabilizing the operation of the machinery industry.
(C) Part of the industry seize the opportunity to counter-trend growth
In the face of the sudden epidemic, with the support of relevant national policies, the machinery industry took the initiative to speed up the resumption of work and production, and some industries seized new opportunities in the crisis to achieve countervailing growth.
Agricultural machinery industry in recent years continued to be at a low level, early this year also by the new crown of the huge impact of the epidemic, but thanks to the timely introduction of the national agricultural machinery scrap update subsidies, northeast black land conservation farming, 2020 agricultural production development projects and a series of agricultural policies and measures, the first half of the agricultural machinery industry rapid recovery, industrial structure optimization, large and medium-sized tractor production from negative to positive, the industry's total profit growth rate of more than 30%.
Benefit from the accelerated investment and construction of power supply projects, the first half of the energy equipment industry continues to run well, the industry total profit from negative to positive, an increase of 2.88%. Which by the turbine manufacturing, turbine manufacturing, generator manufacturing and other 5 small industry constitutes the energy conversion equipment manufacturing industry revenue growth of 12.8%, total profit increased significantly by 46.9%.
Driven by all kinds of construction projects, the first half of the construction machinery industry growth more than expected, the industry focus on monitoring the production of five kinds of major products are to achieve year-on-year growth, the industry's operating income increased by more than 10%, total profits increased by more than 25%.
(iv) Unabated investment in research and development and the use of independent innovations
Under the impact of the epidemic, mechanical enterprises for the pursuit of long-term survival and development, the enthusiasm for research and development and innovation is not reduced, investment is not reduced. Machinery industry key contact enterprise statistics show that since April industry R & D costs year-on-year has been from negative to positive, in the first half of the revenue and profit is still in the background of negative growth, the industry R & D expenditure increase has reached double digits, 58.8% of the key contact enterprise R & D costs year-on-year growth.
A number of domestic independent R & D innovations were put into use in the first half of the year. The first domestic 10 MW offshore wind turbine jointly developed by Three Gorges Group and Dongfang Electric Group was successfully connected to the grid in Fujian Fuqing Xinghua Bay Phase II Offshore Wind Farm, which is the largest offshore wind turbine with a single capacity in the Asia-Pacific region and the second largest in the world independently developed by China. The world's first ultra-small turning radius hard rock tunnel boring machine independently developed by China Railway Equipment Group was used in the State Grid Xin Yuan Shandong Wendeng pumped storage power station project, which is the first time for China to introduce the hard rock full-section tunnel boring machine (TBM) method into the pumped storage power station construction field, and is a milestone significance for promoting the high-quality development of China's tunnel boring machine industry and intelligent construction of pumped storage power stations. The first domestic ultra-large ethane dehydrogenation to ethylene cold box with a total weight of 592 tons developed by Hangxiang was sent to Lianyungang Petrochemical Project Base for use. The world's largest 4,000-ton crawler crane, developed and manufactured by Sany Heavy Industries, successfully completed the lifting of the No. 4 "1,500-ton" propylene tower of the Luqing Petrochemical Project, realizing a full series of replacement of imported crawler cranes by domestic products.
(V) Exploring overseas markets by all possible means
In the face of the new crown epidemic and the resulting global economic recession, the machinery industry enterprises diversified to explore overseas markets and actively stabilize foreign trade. In the first half of XCMG large-tonnage cranes sent to Australia in bulk, excavating machinery, road machinery sent to North America in bulk, and exported to Southeast Asian countries worth more than 100 million yuan of customized models. Shanghai Electric Automation Group for the first time as a rail transit electromechanical integration of general contracting unit to participate in the Philippines Makati Metro project, marking the completion of the rail transit industry from a single service to the project package turnkey leap, this is also the first overseas metro projects undertaken by Shanghai Electric Group, is a major breakthrough in its exploration of overseas markets. The formal implementation of Dongfang Electric Group's Ecuador Luweiqiao wind power project marks the successful landing of its wind power projects in the South American market after landing in Europe and Africa.
(VI) Actively explore new kinetic energy for development
In the face of sudden epidemics, mechanical enterprises take the initiative to expand service areas, innovative service model, and actively explore the development of new kinetic energy. Dongfang Electric Dongfang Turbine Co., Ltd. and Everbright Environmental Protection Energy (Jiangyin) Co., Ltd. signed a contract for Everbright Jiangyin III turbine start-stop transformation project, marking the enterprise's formal entry into the field of power plant intelligent transformation. Shaangu Group signed a strategic agreement with State Grid for integrated energy services and became a member of the "Digital New Infrastructure" project of State Grid. In order to cope with the difficulties of international exchange caused by the global epidemic, XCMG Group opened the "online business model", taking the lead in the industry to hold a global live broadcast of construction machinery, and the use of new media broadcast platform by the industry curators to promote China's construction machinery products around the world, online live "with goods". "The
III. Difficulties and pressures persist
At present, the recovery of production and operation of the machinery industry has achieved some results, and the difficulties and problems encountered in the early stages have been alleviated to varying degrees with the improvement of the epidemic. But in efforts to achieve steady economic growth throughout the year, there are still the following difficulties and pressure.
(1) The economic operation situation of machinery industry is still severe.
The current domestic macroeconomic recovery continues, the market environment continues to improve, but from the investment, consumption, foreign trade three big pull factors, the machinery industry economic operation situation is still grim. In the first half of the national investment in fixed assets fell 3.1% year-on-year, and which is closely related to mechanical products, equipment and tools investment fell 13.9%. Total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year fell 11.4%, while the consumption of automotive products fell 15.2%. The country's foreign trade exports (in US dollars) fell by 6.2% in the first half of the year, while those of the machinery industry fell by 7.37% year-on-year. The mechanical industry related indicators are slower to rebound than the overall level.
(2) The problem of insufficient demand still continues
Although the production and operation order of domestic enterprises continued to improve, market demand has not yet fully recovered. Key contact enterprise statistics show that in the first half of the machinery industry cumulative order value in the previous year on the basis of a low base continued to decline by 5.4%, although the decline narrowed by nearly 10 percentage points than at the beginning of the year, but still in an obvious state of decline. early July special survey showed that more than 60% of the surveyed enterprises reflected that the lack of orders is the primary difficulty encountered in the production and operation of enterprises.
(C) the heavy burden of difficult to recover accounts business
By the end of June, the machinery industry's total accounts receivable had reached 5 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly one-third of the country's total industrial accounts receivable, a year-on-year increase of 10.39%, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points over the first quarter. The amount of accounts receivable is large, recovery is difficult to lead machinery enterprises generally exist capital pressure, have to increase the way to solve the problem of capital turnover through increased borrowing, and then pay high interest to increase the cost burden. Key contact enterprise statistics show that in the first half of the mechanical enterprise finance costs fell 0.27% year-on-year, of which interest costs rose 4.16% year-on-year.
(D) industry investment recovery weak
With the epidemic prevention and control situation gradually improving, the machinery industry fixed capital.
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